While there have been quite a few notable NFL betting trends from the first half of the season, the one that stands out the most is the rate at which unders have been hitting on the point totals this season.
Unders are now 83-52-1 (61.5%) for the season, which is the highest percentage through nine weeks since 1991.
NFL Betting Trends: Historically High Rate for Unders
Unders improved to 83-52-1 for the season after going 11-3 in Week 9. For the season, unders have hit in the majority of the games in all but two weeks. On prime-time games, unders have been cashing at an even higher rate, going 22-7 (75.8%) through nine weeks.
Given the success of unders so far in 2023, it’s no surprise that NFL offenses have been far worse this season than in recent years.
NFL teams, on average, are scoring 21.7 points per game this season, which is tied with 2017 for the lowest in the last 10 years. This season’s average of 330.1 yards per game is the lowest in the league since 2008 as well.
As unders have continued to dominate this season, how have the oddsmakers adjusted to setting totals?
Sportsbooks Adjust To Unders Trend
Last week, with 10 of the 14 teams starting backup quarterbacks, the average total was 42.1, which was the lowest for a single week since 2008. This week, six of the 14 games have a total lower than 40 points, including two of the three prime-time games.
“Bettors have definitely noticed how strong unders have been, and it’s been a far more popular play compared to early in the season,” said PointsBet trader Wyatt Satre in the company’s newsletter.
“From the start of the season to October 1, 38% of the handle for straight bets on totals was on the under. From October 2 to November 5, that number is up to 53% on the under.”
Satre’s quote lines up with what Adam Pullen, Assistant Director of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook, told Pro Football Network earlier this season, saying that the public is more keen to bet unders than in years past.
With how much money bettors have been winning on unders this season, you would imagine that there will be even less money on overs each week as long as this trend continues.